Thoughts on Demographics, Naming, Branding, and STEM Compression.

What will we call the kids after Gen Z (late 1990s to late 2010’s)?

Turns out its Generation Alpha. Several futurists and demographers have been using this phrase to describe the next crop of kids (born from 2010–2025) for over a decade now. My kids (born 2015 and 2019) are alphas.

This name is obvious in retrospect when we realize restarting the count, using Greek letters this time, is the simplest and easiest naming convention. Wikipedia’s Generation Alpha page says foresight consultant Mark McCrindle coined this name in print in 2008. …

Note: This is one of my more speculative posts, about events I expect to occur in later decades of this amazing century. Nevertheless, it has implications today, so perhaps you’ll find it worth a skim. As always, let me know what you think, here or privately at john@foresightu.com. Thanks.

When we presently die, many of us realize that most of our unique self, including, for most of us, the majority of our unique experiences, ideas, values, goals, and personality, currently dies with us. That can be a traumatic realization.

But consider that once we have personal AIs (aka PAIs, see my Medium series on them) in wide use, even in their early and limited forms in the 2030s, that will no longer the case. Interacting with our PAIs will be a very natural and unavoidable way for us to increasingly upload us into a new substrate, whether we want to be uploaded or not. In fact, I’d predict that the migration of individual minds from biology to technology, incrementally via our Personal AIs must occur on all Earthlike planets everywhere in our universe, and I bet that such PAI uploading will happen much earlier than by any other more biologically invasive method (eg, brain-machine interfaces). …

This is an incredible book. It’s one of the best I’ve read in the last twenty years, and I read a lot. If you want it, here’s an Amazon link.

The Fourth Age, by the accomplished tech entrepreneur and futurist Byron Reese, offers a deep understanding of human history, a superb vision for where we are going as a species, and clear view of the forces causing technological disruption and opportunity, and the rise of platforms, AI and automation (and soon, robotics) that we see all around us today.

In a world of accelerating change, good leaders need more than ever to understand the things that don’t change, the universals that drive progress. Understanding those universals gives us “future wisdom,” the ability to see humanity’s uneven yet unmistakable journey toward social justice and personal empowerment, and the skills we need to be resilient and see progress opportunities in any future environment. This book offers that wisdom, and is a great read as well. …

Here is a great question to ask any futurist or foresighter: What have you changed your mind about in recent years? In 2014, I didn’t think drones for commuting and cargo deliveries were going to arrive anywhere in the world within ten years, or by 2025. The challenges seemed too daunting, and the investments and competition in the space just too small to make a difference. Since then, I’ve come to realize I was wrong. If I’d been paying closer attention to the enabling technology trends, I would have changed my mind. The US, China, Dubai, and Israel are all experimenting with these today, and all of these and many other places are likely to allow commercial operations by 2025. …

This is an excerpt from my book, The Foresight Guide, free online at ForesightGuide.com. The Guide intros the field of professional foresight, and offers a Big Picture view of our accelerating 21st century future.

For an example of audience bias, generational stereotyping, and cause misattribution, see the 13min YouTube video Millennials in the Workforce: A Generation of Weakness, 2017 by the author and motivational speaker Simon Sinek. I’ve praised his work in Chapter 3, in Why & What vs. How, Who, Where & When, but here Sinek is guilty of offering a facile (tidy, superficial, and wrong) overgeneralization of millennials as a group, and of their future prospects for happiness. …

Part 1 — Bitcoins, A Real Future
Part 2 — Blockchain Hype, Mania and Scams
Part 3 — Regulatory Needs, and Promising Startups (this page)

We Need Better Regulation of Bitcoins and Blockchain ICOs

While most bitcoins are majority crowd-owned, there seems to be a continuum of governance models, far too little transparency, and as of yet no easy-to-understand Federal disclosure requirements. …

Part 1 — Bitcoins, A Real Future
Part 2 — Blockchain Hype, Mania and Scams (this page)
Part 3 — Regulatory Needs, and Promising Startups

[Note: A earlier version of this part was first published July 20]

tl;dr

• The blockchain (distributed ledgers, tamper-resistant transparent transaction databases) will certainly see piecemeal new uses in the next decade. This technology started with bitcoins, and is being being experimented with by banks and other industries today.
• These groups are trying out their own private versions, to enable useful new functions like consensus modification of the ledger. …

Part 1 — Bitcoins, A Real Future (this page)
Part 2 — Blockchain Hype, Mania and Scams
Part 3 — Regulatory Needs, and Promising Startups

Tl;dr

· I am bullish with respect to bitcoins, and I expect much less to come from most other blockchain startups over the next five years.

· I recommend that you get into bitcoins now as a minor speculative investment, as you can financially benefit from holding and using them today.

· I also recommend you avoid almost all non-bitcoin blockchain ICOs, and be very skeptical regarding their near-term future. …